Max Gallop

Research

Current projects

Papers available on request: max.gallop@strath.ac.uk

  1. Figure from Proving Loyalty, Losing Capacity: Military Purges and Wartime Violence Against Civilians

    Proving Loyalty, Losing Capacity: Military Purges and Wartime Violence Against Civilians

    With Jun Koga Sudduth

    Under review

    This project looks at the interplay between two troubling forms of autocratic behaviour, the use of purges to deepen personal control of the military, and the tendency to commit violence against the civilian population during civil conflict. We find that different types of purges have countervailing effects on civilian victimization: large-scale purges disrupt military capacity, leading to lower levels of civilian victimization, while top-ranking purges install new officers who can display their loyalty by carrying out atrocities. These effects operate on different timescales: the loyalty effect comes into play within the first few years, while capacity degradation takes longer to propagate through the military.

  2. Figure from The Tip of the Iceberg: Estimating Underreported Transnational Repression with a Latent Network Model

    The Tip of the Iceberg: Estimating Underreported Transnational Repression with a Latent Network Model

    With Howard Liu and Shahryar Minhas

    Working paper

    A troubling and increasingly salient modern phenomenon is that autocratic repression no longer seems to respect state borders. A growing body of quantitative research relies largely on news reports of the most violent and visible forms of repression, ignoring that autocracies are strategic actors that often have a strong interest in avoiding detection. In this project we apply a novel network model to see if we can detect covert and latent transnational repression, and identify so-called “dark dyads,” cases where our model would predict high levels of repression but none is reported. We evaluate these dyads using both out-of-sample testing and cross-checking against qualitative records of China’s repression of the Uyghur diaspora.

  3. Figure from Rashomon Histories: What the Data Support Is Bigger Than What We Report

    Rashomon Histories: What the Data Support Is Bigger Than What We Report

    With Alan van Beek, Scott de Marchi, John Nagl, and eleven undergraduate co-authors

    Working paper

    Empirical work in international relations often hinges on a small number of important historical cases. Yet these cases are coded based on a contested (and changing) historiography, where multiple defensible codings of the same case can coexist. This is particularly true of an important topic like nuclear bargaining. In this project, we examine the historiography around nuclear crises and develop a new technique that assesses how sensitive a particular model is to historiographic uncertainty. We apply this technique to the role of nuclear weapons in crisis bargaining, and confirm research showing that nuclear states are more likely to prevail over non-nuclear states, but find claims that superiority matters in nuclear dyads to be overstated.

Journal articles

  1. Figure from Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks

    Decisive or Distracted: The Effects of US Constraint on Security Networks

    With Ha Eun Choi, Scott de Marchi, and Shahryar Minhas

    British Journal of Political Science 55: e169, 2025

  2. Figure from Spatial Dynamics of Election Violence: How Repression Spreads Dissent around Elections

    Spatial Dynamics of Election Violence: How Repression Spreads Dissent around Elections

    With Jun Koga Sudduth

    Journal of Politics 85(3), 2023

  3. Figure from Network Competition and Civilian Targeting During Civil Conflict

    Network Competition and Civilian Targeting During Civil Conflict

    With Cassy Dorff and Shahryar Minhas

    British Journal of Political Science 53(2), 2023

    Replication files
  4. Figure from Taking Dyads Seriously

    Taking Dyads Seriously

    With Shahryar Minhas, Cassy Dorff, Margaret Foster, Howard Liu, Juan Tellez, and Michael D. Ward

    Political Science Research and Methods 10(4), 2022

    Replication files
  5. Figure from Building Cybersecurity Capacity: A Framework of Analysis for National Cybersecurity Strategies

    Building Cybersecurity Capacity: A Framework of Analysis for National Cybersecurity Strategies

    With Anthony J.S. Craig and Richard A.I. Johnson

    Journal of Cyber Policy 7(3), 2022

  6. Figure from [W]hat Lies Beneath: Using Latent Networks to Improve Spatial Predictions

    [W]hat Lies Beneath: Using Latent Networks to Improve Spatial Predictions

    With Cassy Dorff and Shahryar Minhas

    International Studies Quarterly 66(1): sqab086, 2022

  7. Figure from Who Are in Charge, Who Do I Work With, and Who Are My Friends: A Latent Space Approach to Understanding Elite Coappearances in China

    Who Are in Charge, Who Do I Work With, and Who Are My Friends: A Latent Space Approach to Understanding Elite Coappearances in China

    With Narisong Huhe and Shahryar Minhas

    Social Networks 66, 2021

    Replication files
  8. Figure from A Network Approach to Measuring State Preferences

    A Network Approach to Measuring State Preferences

    With Shahryar Minhas

    Network Science 9(2), 2021

    Replication files
  9. Figure from Polarisation, Accountability, and Interstate Conflict

    Polarisation, Accountability, and Interstate Conflict

    With Zachary Greene

    British Journal of Politics and International Relations 23(1), 2021

  10. Figure from Networks of Violence: Predicting Conflict in Nigeria

    Networks of Violence: Predicting Conflict in Nigeria

    With Cassy Dorff and Shahryar Minhas

    Journal of Politics 82(2), 2020

    Replication files
  11. Figure from Assessing the Impact of Non-Random Measurement Error on Inference: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach

    Assessing the Impact of Non-Random Measurement Error on Inference: A Sensitivity Analysis Approach

    With Simon Weschle

    Political Science Research and Methods 7(2), 2019

  12. Figure from More Dangerous than Dyads: How a Third Party Enables Rationalist Explanations for War

    More Dangerous than Dyads: How a Third Party Enables Rationalist Explanations for War

    Journal of Theoretical Politics 29(3), 2017

  13. Figure from Endogenous Networks and International Cooperation

    Endogenous Networks and International Cooperation

    Journal of Peace Research 53(3), 2016

  14. Figure from Cabinet Formation and Portfolio Distribution in European Multi-Party Systems

    Cabinet Formation and Portfolio Distribution in European Multi-Party Systems

    With Josh Cutler, Scott de Marchi, Florian Hollenbach, Michael Laver, and Matthias Orlowski

    British Journal of Political Science 46(1), 2016

  15. Figure from Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior

    Antigovernment Networks in Civil Conflicts: How Network Structures Affect Conflictual Behavior

    With Nils Metternich, Simon Weschle, Cassy Dorff, and Michael D. Ward

    American Journal of Political Science 57(4), 2013

  16. Figure from Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction

    Learning from the Past and Stepping into the Future: Toward a New Generation of Conflict Prediction

    With Michael D. Ward, Nils Metternich, Cassy Dorff, Florian Hollenbach, Anna Schultz, and Simon Weschle

    International Studies Review 15(4), 2013

Other writing

  1. Figure from Nuclear and Conventional Deterrence in Theory and Practice

    Nuclear and Conventional Deterrence in Theory and Practice

    With Kathryn Cochran, Scott de Marchi, and John Nagl

    SocArXiv preprint, 2024